Author: Kshitiz Jain

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of web.

Index	16-Dec-22	09-Dec-22	Change (%)
Nifty 50	18,269	18,496	-1.22
Nifty 500	15,636	15,812	-1.13
Nifty Midcap 50	8,831	8,917	-0.96
Nifty Smallcap 100	10,017	9,969	0.48

Gyaan of the week

State Development Loans (SDLs) are debt securities issued by State Governments. Generally, SDLs are issued for 10-year maturity and offer higher returns than central government securities. SDLs have lesser risk than AAA corporate bonds as it is backed by Sovereign Guarantee. Please see our recommendation for SDLs if you are investing for more than 2 years.

Here’s the list of curated readings for you this week:

Personal Finance

• When to bet big and when not to – In essence, you don’t have to be right a lot, you just have to be right about your big bets at the right time. Here, while the probabilities matter a lot, so do the consequences i.e., the amount of possible gain/loss. It is important to get that equation right. Read here.

• Moneycontrol Mutual Fund Summit. How will actively managed funds generate alpha – The entire panel said they were Overweight on financials at the moment, on the back of good earnings visibility and strong asset quality. Read here.

• Crypto: Financial Hazard or Diversification Tool? – With all the negativity generated by the crypto market’s volatility and the FTX collapse, cryptocurrencies have a serious image problem, to put it mildly. But they might be worth a closer look, according to an Enterprising Investor blog post. Their conclusion: Crypto’s low positive correlation with mutual funds and ETFs and weak correlation with traditional assets might prove useful for certain investors. Read here.

• Bonds and Fixed Income: Where’s the Hedge? – Of course, bonds and other fixed-income assets are supposed to offer diversification benefits and provide something of a cushion for when the equity component of a portfolio runs into rough times. Clearly, they are not performing these functions especially well of late. Read here.

Investing

• How to do Business Analysis of Construction Companies– Dr. Vijay Malik writes about the factors that impact the business of construction companies and the characteristics that differentiate a fundamentally strong construction company from a weak one. Read here.

• Anant Goenka’s CEAT-Zensar balancing act– Interesting read on the two RPG group companies CEAT and Zensar. Read more here.

• The case for NASDAQ Index fund investment – Nasdaq 100 is one of the most recommended and preferred destinations for Indian equity investors because they offer geographical diversification. Read here.

Economy

• India Headline inflation falls sharply, but core inflation persists- Given that monetary policy primarily tackles core inflation, the latest data shows it may be premature to say that the rate hikes delivered by the RBI so far have started having an impact. Nor is it safe to rule out a resurgence of inflation if food prices were to rise again, as they typically do during summers. Read here.

• Big enterprises are better employers – Broadly, it is evident that the wage rate is directly proportionate to the size of the company. Apparently, it would thus be much better if India has many more large companies than small-sized companies. Read here.

• Fed’s Powell says inflation battle not won, more rate hikes coming. – The Federal Reserve will deliver more interest rate hikes next year even as the economy slips towards a possible recession, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday, arguing that a higher cost would be paid if the U.S. central bank does not get a firmer grip on inflation. Read here

CAGR Speak

• Shruti talks about sessions for the leap.club members last week. It was enlightening to see women take time out over a weekend to learn more about their own personal finance. Read the linkedin post here.

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Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios here.

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That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you have any feedback that you’d like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information outlined in this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated in this newsletter.

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of web.

Index	09-Dec-22	02-Dec-22	Change (%)
Nifty 50	18,496	18,696	-1.06
Nifty 500	15,812	15,963	-0.94
Nifty Midcap 50	8,917	8,994	-0.85
Nifty Smallcap 100	9,969	10,079	-1.09

Bazaar Ki Baat – Nov 2022

In this month’s edition of “Bazaar Ki Baat”, our founders discuss in brief about what moved the market in November, how the corporates fare in Q2, the case for Target Maturity funds, and many more such interesting topics. Watch here.

Gyaan of the week

A total return Index is an index created to track capital appreciation as well as dividends. The total return index reinvests all the dividends within the company as retained earnings. The total return Index is a way to include every part of the return and not just the price index. Total return indices help show an investor’s complete return by including dividends in an investor’s return. For example, if we buy 1 unit of total return index at Rs 100 and it offers Rs 8 as a dividend. The stock has increased by 20% to Rs 120. The nominal return is 20%. By reinvesting the dividend, assuming we gained an additional Rs 2 in value. The investment is worth Rs 130. The total return is 30%.

Here’s the list of curated readings for you this week:

Personal Finance

• FinMin allows PSUs to invest surplus cash in debt schemes of private MFs – India’s finance ministry has liberalised investment norms governing the deployment of surplus cash at state-owned companies, expanding the universe of approved debt plans beyond the current bailiwick of fixed-income investment schemes run exclusively by public-sector mutual funds. Read here.

• What is ChatGPT? – Artificial Intelligence (AI) research company OpenAI on Wednesday announced ChatGPT, a prototype dialogue-based AI chatbot capable of understanding natural language and responding in natural language. It has since taken the internet by storm and already crossed more than a million users in less than a week. Read here.

• ESIC to invest up to 15% surplus funds in stock market via ETFs – Employees’ State Insurance Corporation (ESIC) accorded approval for investments of surplus funds in equity, however, restricted to Exchanged Traded Funds (ETFs).  Read here.

• Anyone who has become rich twice is dumb–Why would you risk what you need and have for what you don’t need? If you are already rich, there is no upside to taking on a lot more risk, but there is disgrace on the downside said Warren Buffet. Read here.

Investing

• Common Critiques of Bitcoin and rebuttals to each– Bitcoin faces plenty of criticism, some justified, some easily refuted. Here we catalogue common criticisms of bitcoin, and rebuttals to each. Read here.

• Investor Safir Anand says 2023 will be a better year than 2022 – Safir’s portfolio is almost in equities and I intend to keep it that way for now. Read more here.

Economy

• India central bank says inflation battle not over, raises rates again- While there have been signs recently that price pressures may be moderating, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said the main risk was that inflation could remain pervasive and elevated, reinforcing market views the central bank could hike rates again in coming months. Read here.

• Zerodha founder talks about UPI block money features impact on the broking industry – RBI’s announcement of allowing single block and multiple debits on UPI can potentially have some interesting outcomes for the broking industry.Read the Twitter thread here.

• RBI Governor explains the difference between UPI & CBDC. – Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Shaktikanta Das clarified the key differences between the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) and Unified Payments Interface (UPI), saying e-rupee transactions will not have any intermediary, unlike UPI transactions. Watch here

CAGR Speak

• There is a fundamental difference between how a domestic investor views India equity returns and how a Foreign Investor looks at it. Read the linkedin post here.

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Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios here.

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That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you enjoyed reading this issue, please consider following us here, here, and here for encouragement to keep writing this weekly newsletter.

If you have any feedback that you’d like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information outlined in this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated in this newsletter.

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of web.

Index	02-Dec-22	25-Nov-22	Change (%)
Nifty 50	18,696	18,513	0.98
Nifty 500	15,963	15,727	1.50
Nifty Midcap 50	8,994	8,758	2.69
Nifty Smallcap 100	10,079	9,849	2.33

Market commentary – Nov 2022

November was the month of consolidation in Indian stock market. All broad-based Indian equity indices continued their rally in November. Nifty 50 index registered gains of 4.1% during November and touched its lifetime highs.

Although the bullish sentiment was widespread, smaller companies continued to lag their larger peers. The US markets also had a positive month, on the back of easing inflation and optimism surrounding a potential slowing pace of U.S. rate hikes.

Gyaan of the week

Fixed Maturity Plans are close-ended debt mutual fund schemes with a pre-defined maturity. The money is invested in debt instruments maturing in line with the scheme tenure. The tenure of an FMP can vary between a few months to a few years. They primarily invest in fixed income instruments such as a certificate of deposits, commercial paper or bonds to lock-in the interest rates available. As the securities are held till maturity, it helps to eliminate interest rate fluctuation. FMPs work well for investors who have certain goals that they would like to execute over a specific period. The downside of FMPs is that the investor’s funds get locked-in till maturity.

Here’s the list of curated readings for you this week:

Personal Finance

• Getting Wealthy vs. Staying Wealthy – Getting money requires taking risks, being optimistic, and putting yourself out there. But keeping money requires the opposite of taking risk. It requires humility, and fear that what you’ve made can be taken away from you just as fast. Read here.

• SEBI is going hi-tech– The regulator has developed a system based on artificial intelligence (AI) that scans various stock market shows and builds a database of recommendations made, said people with direct knowledge of the matter. Read here.

• Why index? Simply put, because indexing works- The growth of indexing has been driven by the inability of active managers, in aggregate, to outperform passive benchmarks. This is not a new development — it was first reported 90 years ago. The rise of passive management is the consequence of active performance shortfalls. Read here.

Investing

• The rise and rise of Adani group – The Adani Group’s current market cap is already higher than the GDP of countries like Ukraine and Sri Lanka. Only the rapid rise in market cap of new-age Amazon, Google and Facebook come close or, back home, giants like HDFC Bank and TCS. Read here.

• Samit Vartak of SageOne Investment Managers shares his success and failures – An individual investor has the option of sitting on cash or timing it and just moving all of his or her cash into those couple of sectors. It’s a wonderful bet to play. If I was an individual investor, maybe I would do that. As a fund manager, it is a different ball game.  Read here.

Economy

• India’s capex cycle remains elusive- Increase in new investment projects seen in CMIE’s CapEx database is offset by the lack of revival in completion of announced projects. And, while central government capex spending is up, state government capex spending which is of comparable magnitude is sluggish. Read here.

• India GDP growth halves in September quarter – India’s economic growth pace halved to 6.3 per cent in July-to-September, amid rising repo rates and contraction in manufacturing output. Read here.

• Perhaps, this is one of the best set of statistics to report. Employment by listed companies crossed the 10 million mark in 2021-22. – Listed companies are the best employers and therefore, this big increase in employment by them makes a significant difference to the quality of employment in India. Read here

CAGR Speak

• Not all bank bonds are as safe as they seem. Most retail investors just assume that the call option date in bank bonds to be the same as maturity date and believe that they are getting a higher yield for a lower tenor maturity.Read the linkedin post here.

• We make a living by what we get. We make a life by what we give said Winston Churchill. A few weeks back, we conducted a session on wealth building before the alumni of DAV Public School at Kota. It was a fulfilling experience. Read here.

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Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios here.

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That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you enjoyed reading this issue, please consider following us here, here and here for the encouragement to keep writing this weekly newsletter.

If you have any feedback that you’d like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated on this newsletter.

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of web.

Index	25-Nov-22	18-Nov-22	Change (%)
Nifty 50	18,513	18,307	1.11
Nifty 500	15,727	15,550	1.13
Nifty Midcap 50	8,758	8,539	2.50
Nifty Smallcap 100	9,849	9,613	2.40

Gyaan of the week

Target maturity funds are passive debt mutual fund schemes, tracking an underlying bond index. These funds invest in bonds having maturity close to the fund’s stated maturity. The bonds are held till maturity and the coupons paid by the bonds are re-invested in the fund. So, investors benefit from these funds as they provide visibility and stability of returns. Also, as they are mandated to investment in Govt. securities, PSUs or State Govt., the investments are safe.

Here’s the list of curated readings for you this week:

Personal Finance

• What Really Matters? –  Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management says that What really matters is the performance of your holdings over the next five or ten years (or more) and how the value at the end of the period compares to the amount you invested and to your needs. Read the memo here.

• India has emerged as the second most coveted investment market – India has emerged as the second most coveted investment market after the United States for sovereign wealth funds and public pensions funds in 2022, according to a study by asset manager Invesco published on Monday. Read here.

• Crypto exchange saga just keeps getting better- Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX, his parents and senior executives of the failed cryptocurrency exchange bought at least 19 properties worth nearly $121 million in the Bahamas over the past two years, official property records show Read here.

Investing

• India Q2 Earnings review – Amid a volatile global macro backdrop, India Inc. provided a decent Corporate earnings for 2QFY23, driven by continued strong performance of Financials and lesser-than-estimated losses in OMC’s.  Watch here.

• The Myth of the Tech God Is Crumbling – It’s the myth of extreme competence. Key to the power of this myth was that it wasn’t only techies who believed. Investors, both professionals and everyday Joes and Janes, bid up tech stocks to stratospheric valuations. In the past couple of weeks, however, it’s become clearer than ever that the myth of extreme competence is just that—a myth.  Read here.

Economy

• Increase in Bank credit to Industry may give boost to the economy – Indian lenders are expanding lending to local corporations at the fastest pace in more than eight years, a sign of a new private investment cycle starting in the world’s fifth-largest economy even as growth in large developed economies and China slows. Read here.

• China keeps shooting itself in the foot with Covid shut downs- The wave of infections is testing recent adjustments China has made to its zero-COVID policy, aimed at making authorities more targeted in clampdown measures and steering them away from blanket lockdowns and testing that have strangled the economy and frustrated residents nearly three years into the pandemic. Read here.

• The rise of Indian women and its implications. As India reaps the benefits of a decade long infra build and economic reform journey, Indian women – more than Indian men – are emerging as gamechangers. The rapid growth of a Service-oriented economy, the spread of affordable education, and the mushrooming of smartphones and social media have helped Indian women rise more rapidly over the past decade than Indian men. Read here

CAGR Speak

• Why do holding companies in India trade at a large discount? India has a large number of holding companies which are listed and trade at a discount to the value of their equity holdings in other companies. The discounts in some of the holding companies is as high as 60-70%. Read the linkedin post here.

• Why do it yourself may not be the best strategy when it comes to investing?  Read here.

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Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios here.

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That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you enjoyed reading this issue, please consider following us here, here and here for the encouragement to keep writing this weekly newsletter.

If you have any feedback that you’d like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated on this newsletter.