Category: CAGR Insights – weekly newsletter curated by Kshitiz

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of web.

Index	22-Dec-23	15-Dec-23	Change
Nifty 50	21,331	21,457	-0.58%
Nifty 500	19,038	19,145	-0.56%
Nifty Midcap 50	12,827	13,029	-1.55%
Nifty Smallcap 100	14,827	14,886	-0.40%

Chart Ki Baat

Gyaan Ki Baat

Buffet Indicator – The stock market capitalization-to-GDP ratio serves as a key metric to assess whether the overall market is currently undervalued or overvalued relative to its historical average. The significance of this ratio gained prominence following Warren Buffett’s acknowledgment that it is likely the “best single measure” to gauge valuations at any given moment.

In Fiscal Year 2023, the market cap to GDP ratio in India stood at 95. However, due to a recent rally, the ratio has surpassed 100. While the long-term average hovers around 80%, the elevated ratio suggests that the market might be overheated in the short term. Notably, the ratio has remained above 100 since Fiscal Year 2021, diminishing its effectiveness as a short-term indicator.

The reliability of the Market Cap to GDP ratio is notably higher in economies where the market cap more substantially mirrors economic activity. Consequently, advanced countries like the US, UK, and Singapore exhibit Market Cap/GDP ratios well above 100, given the prevalence of formal sector businesses in these nations.

Here’s the list of curated readings for you this week:

Personal Finance

• Intellectual Dishonesty in What’s Being Sold – The article discusses the trend of individuals making money by selling advice on how to do something rather than actually engaging in the activity, emphasizing the importance of honesty in the face of potential financial scams. Read here.

• Unmasking Financial Charlatans – The author critiques financial doomsayers, including Robert Kiyosaki, for their persistent predictions of economic collapse, emphasizing the importance of realistic financial advice. Read here.

• Fintech Solutions Revolutionizing Indian Offline Retail – This blog explores promising fintech solutions for Indian merchants, emphasizing practicality and incremental adoption, including diverse payment methods, enhanced credit accessibility, and tailored insurance offerings. Read here.

Investing

• An Alpha generation strategy – Turtle Creek Asset Management, a value investing firm, distinguishes itself by actively trading around core positions through Continuous Portfolio Optimization clocking compounded annual returns of 20% over 25 years. Read here.

• Discovering Your Investment Philosophy – Establishing a robust investment philosophy involves identifying market inefficiencies, the underlying causes, corrections, and providing a foundational framework for consistent decision-making. Read here.

• Navigating the Risks of Market Concentration – The article explores the potential challenges arising from the current unprecedented market concentration in the U.S., emphasizing the need for investors to reconsider traditional strategies for better risk management and alpha generation. Read here.

• The importance of having a well-defined investment process – The note emphasizes the critical role of drawing insights from the experiences of successful investors and highlighting the importance of sticking to the process for long-term success in equity investing. Read here.

Economy

• Potential Consequences of Suez Canal Crisis – The blockage of the Suez Canal may lead to increased freight costs, affecting India Inc’s earnings and potentially stoking inflation, with sectors such as textiles, oil and gas, chemicals, capital goods, metals, and pharma being particularly vulnerable. Read here.

• Private Capex Surge: Unveiling the Resurgence – Private capital expenditure in India has surged with optimism driven by supportive government policies, rising GDP growth, increased capacity utilization, and higher corporate profitability, indicating a potential boost in long-term economic growth. Read here.

• Facebook’s Struggle in India – As India tightens platform laws ahead of the upcoming general election, Facebook witnesses a tenfold increase in content restrictions, reflecting a significant shift in the online landscape and concerns about free speech. Read here.

• Diverge views on Exchange Rate Regime and Policy Recommendations – IMF’s reclassification of India’s exchange rate regime, including tax measures and trade restrictions, has been met with strong disagreement from Indian authorities. Read here.

• Comparison of Global Inflation – India’s inflation for November 2023 appears higher than most countries; the analysis includes real policy rate comparison and movement in global commodity prices. Read here.

• Macro and Bond Market Insights – The Fed’s recent pivot signals the end of the hiking cycle, with potential rate cuts discussed, influencing a bullish bond view and supporting an elongation of portfolio maturities. Read here.

• Indri: Transforming India’s Spirits Market – India-made single malt whisky, Indri, named the world’s best is challenging global brands and fuelling a boom in Indian whisky consumption. Read here.

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Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios here.

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That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you have any feedback that you would like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information outlined in this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated in this newsletter.

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of web.

Index	1-Dec-23	24-Nov-23	Change
Nifty 50	20,268	19,795	2.39%
Nifty 500	18,115	17,644	2.67%
Nifty Midcap 50	12,335	11,955	3.17%
Nifty Smallcap 100	14,239	13,828	2.98%

Chart Ki Baat

Gyaan Ki Baat

Investment styles, reflecting individual preferences and financial goals, include value, growth, and income investing. Indexing replicates market performance, contrarian strategies challenge sentiments, and technical analysis uses historical charts.

Quantitative methods rely on mathematical models. Socially responsible investing incorporates ESG factors, and dividend growth investing prioritizes increasing dividends. Successful investors blend styles for a diversified approach, aligning with risk tolerance and financial objectives, stressing the need to understand one’s goals.

Here’s the list of curated readings for you this week:

Personal Finance

• Anti-Personal Finance Expert Beliefs – The article reveals that achieving contentment is essentially elusive. Irrespective of one’s earnings, the desire for more persists. The benchmark for satisfaction continually shifts upward. Read here.
  
  
• An ode for Charlie Munger – Charlie Munger embodied three characteristics – rationality, sound judgment, and straightforwardness. Read here.
  
  
• How You Earn Is As Important As What You Earn – Becoming wealthy is straightforward – spending less than earning and investing the surplus – but the real challenge lies in patience, discipline, and emotional resilience over the long term. Read here.

Investing

• Power Laws in the Stock Market – The article outlines that diversification is crucial because it’s impossible to forecast which stocks will deliver substantial returns. Read here.
  
  
• Ramesh Damani on success and regrets – This interview discusses Ramesh Damani’s views on coping with losses, red flags in investing, stock bets that went wrong for him and personality traits of successful investors. Read here.
  
  
• SEBI’s investigation into misuse of proprietary trading – Prop trades involve brokers trading on their own behalf rather than for clients. There have been concerns about brokers misusing this practice. Read here.
  
  
• The enduring myth of Great Companies – Believing that historically successful companies will invariably remain solid, buy-and-hold investments in the future is a persistent misconception in investing. Read here.

Economy

• The Full Reset – The article conveys the effectiveness of starting clean by explaining how the German military achieved significant strength during the 1930s. Read here.
  
  
• Prime Time for Bonds – The article outlines a strategic investment outlook that favors fixed income over equities based on the global economic landscape, market valuations, and asset class fundamentals. Read here.
  
  
• Foxconn’s struggle to make iPhones in India – Foxconn, investing heavily in its iPhone factory in Sunguvarchatram, faces challenges with higher material costs and more defective phones, leading to lower profitability compared to its Chinese counterparts. Read here.
  
  
• Did copy-paste really cost TCS $200 million? – The case involves TCS allegedly obtaining and sharing confidential information about CSC’s software “Vantage” while working with US-based life insurance company Transamerica. Read here.

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Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios here.

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That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you have any feedback that you would like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information outlined in this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated in this newsletter.

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of web.

Index	24-Nov-23	17-Nov-23	Change
Nifty 50	19,795	19,732	0.32%
Nifty 500	17,644	17,601	0.24%
Nifty Midcap 50	11,955	11,905	0.42%
Nifty Smallcap 100	13,828	13,882	-0.39%

Chart ki Baat

Gyaan Ki Baat

Tax loss harvesting is a strategy where investors sell depreciated investments to offset capital gains and minimize taxable income. The goal is to use investment losses to counterbalance gains, thereby reducing overall tax liability.
Losses can offset both long-term and short-term capital gains, taking advantage of lower tax rates for long-term gains. Excess losses beyond current gains can be carried forward to offset future gains. Regular portfolio monitoring is crucial for identifying opportunities to strategically sell investments at a loss, and consulting with tax professionals or financial advisors is recommended for personalized advice based on individual circumstances. 

Here’s the list of curated readings for you this week:

Personal Finance

• Aligning with fundamental principles – Understanding and cooperating with these principles, individuals can allow the world to work in their favor, but taking the initial step is crucial. Read here.
  
  
• Ashish Kacholia’s portfolio hits ₹3,000 crore with multiple multibaggers – Kacholia’s diversified investment strategy, particularly in SMEs and mid-cap firms, has contributed to the substantial growth of his portfolio. Read here.
  
  
• Embracing Very Long-Term Investing – The importance of adopting a genuinely long-term perspective and being prepared to navigate through 2-3 business cycles for lasting wealth accumulation. Read here.

Investing

• The Story of Ching’s – The journey of Desi Chinese form road side stalls to bagging a 5500 CR deal. Read here.
  
  
• Dilution, like inflation, is a silent killer of returns – The article discusses the concept of dilution and that understanding and mitigating dilution risks are crucial for investors to avoid negative impacts on their investments. Read here.
  
  
• How FPI flows have moved? – FPI flows in recent months have been disappointing globally, influenced by geopolitical tensions, currency pressures, and volatility in US treasury yields. Read here.
  
  
• India’s stock exchanges introduce safety net for investors during outages – Major Indian stock exchanges introduced the Investor Risk Reduction Access (IRRA) platform to protect investors from broker-level technical glitches. Key features include immediate notifications, access through Unique Client Code or PAN, and restrictions on algorithmic trading and institutional clients. Read here.
  
  
• How Noise is making noise – Noise has since become a market leader in the Indian smartwatch segment, achieving a record growth of over 80% YoY revenue in FY23, totalling ₹1,426 crore. Read here.

Economy

• Rs 25,000 crore of Sahara money transfer to government – How this transfer could help allay various concerns and stabilize bond yields, influencing borrowing costs in the economy. Read here.
  
  
• India Inc Q2 profit surges, revenue growth muted – India Inc reported an eight-quarter high of 41.4% growth in net profit in the September quarter, however, revenue expansion remained in single digits at 6.2%, with consumer goods and IT companies facing challenges for growth. Read here.
  
  
• Why Markets are calm in the face of war – The article discusses how global markets have responded more to interest rates than the recent conflict between Hamas and Israel. Read here.
  
  
• Real estate renaissance – Companies like the Jumeirah Group and Emaar Properties are eyeing India for luxury facilities and residential projects, recognizing the potential of India’s large and growing market. Read here.
  
  

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Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios here.

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That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you have any feedback that you would like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information outlined in this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated in this newsletter.

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of web.

Index	13-Oct-23	6-Oct-23	Change
Nifty 50	19,734	19,651	0.42%
Nifty 500	17,376	17,292	0.48%
Nifty Midcap 50	11,610	11,543	0.58%
Nifty Smallcap 100	12,891	12,848	0.33%

Chart Ki Baat

Gyaan Ki Baat

Tracking error is a critical concept in the world of finance and investment, primarily associated with index funds and their performance relative to the market. Beta, a measure of an asset’s volatility compared to the market, is set at 1 for the market. Index funds, designed to replicate a market index, ideally have a Beta of 1 and should, in theory, earn the same returns as the overall market.

However, the reality is that index funds can deviate from the market’s returns, and this deviation is quantified as the tracking error.

Here’s the list of curated readings for you this week:

Personal Finance

• The large cap active Mutual funds’ underperformance story continues – As per the recently released SPIVA report by S&P,  in the first half of 2023, majority of Indian Equity Large-Cap  funds failed to beat their benchmark, with 58% of actively managed funds underperforming the S&P BSE 100. Read here
  
  
• SEBI is like the police that make an appearance in the final scene in a Bollywood movie, you are the hero: SEBI whole time member to MF industry-  He also said lauded the MF industry for being “a fantastic ambassador for the securities market” by helping with financial inclusion within the securities market ecosystem. Read here
  
  
• Business Trips have evolved – The Traveller Value Index 2023 report by online travel company Expedia notes that 76% of participants wish to extend their work tripfor leisure purposes, and 28% plan to opt for a flexication. Read here.
  
  
• The Thin Line Between Bold and Reckless –  The hardest thing about studying businesses and investors is that many traits that fueled their success could have just as easily triggered failure. But we rarely think about it that way when learning from specific outcomes. Read here
  
  
• How do I become a stock investor / start investing in stocks / get better at stock picking? – Shruti outlines her perspective – I personally think no course can “teach” stock investing. While courses speed up the learning curve, the real learning happens by getting hands dirty. Read here.

Investing

• The Big Picture – A Synthesists’ perspective on few Mega Trends – 8 mega themes spanning multiple decades & how it may shape investment ahead.  Read here.
  
  
• We are all wet cement – Loved this conversation with Todd Combs of Berkshire. Read here
  
  
• End of lock-ins may bring a flood of shares to Street- The next four months could see a massive supply of shares, potentially reaching up to $12 billion from about 40 companies, excluding state-owned firms that went public in the last two years. This surge arises as various lock-in periods are set to expire for both promoters and investors who participated in pre-IPO placement. Read here.
  
  
• Premiumization is becoming a theme in every sector – One thing which surprised me was that 42% of the respondents plan to purchase a premium smartphone (INR 30,000 or ~$360 and above). Read here.

Economy

• India’s festival season spurs online shopping spree – RedSeer, a Bangalore-based consultancy, which monitors over 100 platforms covering 90% of online sales, predicts virtual shoppers will spend a record $11 billion during the month to mid-November – which would be nearly 20% more than last year. Read here.
  
  
• Cricket fans throng hospitals for overnight stay amid Indo-Pak hysteria – Several doctors told local media the rush for check-up ‘packages’ was an ingenious way to find affordable accommodation as hotel costs have soared up to 20 fold ahead of the match. Read more.
  
  
• India’s retail inflation eases to three-month low in September – Annual retail inflation rose 5.02% in September, down from 6.83% the previous month. Read here.

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Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios here.

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That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you have any feedback that you would like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information outlined in this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated in this newsletter.