CAGR Insights – 09 Dec 2022

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of web.

Index09-Dec-2202-Dec-22Change (%) 
Nifty 5018,49618,696-1.06
Nifty 50015,81215,963-0.94
Nifty Midcap 50 8,9178,994 -0.85
Nifty Smallcap 1009,96910,079-1.09

Bazaar Ki Baat – Nov 2022

In this month’s edition of “Bazaar Ki Baat”, our founders discuss in brief about what moved the market in November, how the corporates fare in Q2, the case for Target Maturity funds, and many more such interesting topics. Watch here.

Gyaan of the week

A total return Index is an index created to track capital appreciation as well as dividends. The total return index reinvests all the dividends within the company as retained earnings. The total return Index is a way to include every part of the return and not just the price index. Total return indices help show an investor’s complete return by including dividends in an investor’s return. For example, if we buy 1 unit of total return index at Rs 100 and it offers Rs 8 as a dividend. The stock has increased by 20% to Rs 120. The nominal return is 20%. By reinvesting the dividend, assuming we gained an additional Rs 2 in value. The investment is worth Rs 130. The total return is 30%.

Here’s the list of curated readings for you this week:

Personal Finance

  • FinMin allows PSUs to invest surplus cash in debt schemes of private MFs – India’s finance ministry has liberalised investment norms governing the deployment of surplus cash at state-owned companies, expanding the universe of approved debt plans beyond the current bailiwick of fixed-income investment schemes run exclusively by public-sector mutual funds. Read here.
  • What is ChatGPT? – Artificial Intelligence (AI) research company OpenAI on Wednesday announced ChatGPT, a prototype dialogue-based AI chatbot capable of understanding natural language and responding in natural language. It has since taken the internet by storm and already crossed more than a million users in less than a week. Read here.
  • ESIC to invest up to 15% surplus funds in stock market via ETFs – Employees’ State Insurance Corporation (ESIC) accorded approval for investments of surplus funds in equity, however, restricted to Exchanged Traded Funds (ETFs).  Read here.
  • Anyone who has become rich twice is dumb–Why would you risk what you need and have for what you don’t need? If you are already rich, there is no upside to taking on a lot more risk, but there is disgrace on the downside said Warren Buffet. Read here.

Investing

  • Common Critiques of Bitcoin and rebuttals to each– Bitcoin faces plenty of criticism, some justified, some easily refuted. Here we catalogue common criticisms of bitcoin, and rebuttals to each. Read here.
  • Investor Safir Anand says 2023 will be a better year than 2022 – Safir’s portfolio is almost in equities and I intend to keep it that way for now. Read more here.

Economy

  • India central bank says inflation battle not over, raises rates again- While there have been signs recently that price pressures may be moderating, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said the main risk was that inflation could remain pervasive and elevated, reinforcing market views the central bank could hike rates again in coming months. Read here.
  • Zerodha founder talks about UPI block money features impact on the broking industry – RBI’s announcement of allowing single block and multiple debits on UPI can potentially have some interesting outcomes for the broking industry.Read the Twitter thread here.
  • RBI Governor explains the difference between UPI & CBDC. – Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Shaktikanta Das clarified the key differences between the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) and Unified Payments Interface (UPI), saying e-rupee transactions will not have any intermediary, unlike UPI transactions. Watch here

CAGR Speak

  • There is a fundamental difference between how a domestic investor views India equity returns and how a Foreign Investor looks at it. Read the linkedin post here.

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Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios here.

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That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you enjoyed reading this issue, please consider following us here, here, and here for encouragement to keep writing this weekly newsletter.

If you have any feedback that you’d like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information outlined in this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated in this newsletter.

CAGR Insights – 02 Dec 2022

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of web.

Index02-Dec-2225-Nov-22Change (%) 
Nifty 5018,69618,5130.98
Nifty 50015,96315,7271.50
Nifty Midcap 50 8,9948,7582.69
Nifty Smallcap 10010,0799,8492.33

Market commentary – Nov 2022

November was the month of consolidation in Indian stock market. All broad-based Indian equity indices continued their rally in November. Nifty 50 index registered gains of 4.1% during November and touched its lifetime highs.

Although the bullish sentiment was widespread, smaller companies continued to lag their larger peers. The US markets also had a positive month, on the back of easing inflation and optimism surrounding a potential slowing pace of U.S. rate hikes.

Gyaan of the week

Fixed Maturity Plans are close-ended debt mutual fund schemes with a pre-defined maturity. The money is invested in debt instruments maturing in line with the scheme tenure. The tenure of an FMP can vary between a few months to a few years. They primarily invest in fixed income instruments such as a certificate of deposits, commercial paper or bonds to lock-in the interest rates available. As the securities are held till maturity, it helps to eliminate interest rate fluctuation. FMPs work well for investors who have certain goals that they would like to execute over a specific period. The downside of FMPs is that the investor’s funds get locked-in till maturity.

Here’s the list of curated readings for you this week:

Personal Finance

  • Getting Wealthy vs. Staying Wealthy – Getting money requires taking risks, being optimistic, and putting yourself out there. But keeping money requires the opposite of taking risk. It requires humility, and fear that what you’ve made can be taken away from you just as fast. Read here.
  • SEBI is going hi-tech– The regulator has developed a system based on artificial intelligence (AI) that scans various stock market shows and builds a database of recommendations made, said people with direct knowledge of the matter. Read here.
  • Why index? Simply put, because indexing works- The growth of indexing has been driven by the inability of active managers, in aggregate, to outperform passive benchmarks. This is not a new development — it was first reported 90 years ago. The rise of passive management is the consequence of active performance shortfalls. Read here.

Investing

  • The rise and rise of Adani group – The Adani Group’s current market cap is already higher than the GDP of countries like Ukraine and Sri Lanka. Only the rapid rise in market cap of new-age Amazon, Google and Facebook come close or, back home, giants like HDFC Bank and TCS. Read here.
  • Samit Vartak of SageOne Investment Managers shares his success and failures – An individual investor has the option of sitting on cash or timing it and just moving all of his or her cash into those couple of sectors. It’s a wonderful bet to play. If I was an individual investor, maybe I would do that. As a fund manager, it is a different ball game.  Read here.

Economy

  • India’s capex cycle remains elusive- Increase in new investment projects seen in CMIE’s CapEx database is offset by the lack of revival in completion of announced projects. And, while central government capex spending is up, state government capex spending which is of comparable magnitude is sluggish. Read here.
  • India GDP growth halves in September quarter – India’s economic growth pace halved to 6.3 per cent in July-to-September, amid rising repo rates and contraction in manufacturing output. Read here.
  • Perhaps, this is one of the best set of statistics to report. Employment by listed companies crossed the 10 million mark in 2021-22. – Listed companies are the best employers and therefore, this big increase in employment by them makes a significant difference to the quality of employment in India. Read here

CAGR Speak

  • Not all bank bonds are as safe as they seem. Most retail investors just assume that the call option date in bank bonds to be the same as maturity date and believe that they are getting a higher yield for a lower tenor maturity.Read the linkedin post here.
  • We make a living by what we get. We make a life by what we give said Winston Churchill. A few weeks back, we conducted a session on wealth building before the alumni of DAV Public School at Kota. It was a fulfilling experience. Read here.

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Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios here.

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That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you enjoyed reading this issue, please consider following us here, here and here for the encouragement to keep writing this weekly newsletter.

If you have any feedback that you’d like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated on this newsletter.

CAGR Insights – 25 Nov 2022

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of web.

Index25-Nov-2218-Nov-22Change (%) 
Nifty 5018,51318,3071.11
Nifty 50015,72715,5501.13
Nifty Midcap 50 8,7588,5392.50
Nifty Smallcap 1009,8499,6132.40

Gyaan of the week

Target maturity funds are passive debt mutual fund schemes, tracking an underlying bond index. These funds invest in bonds having maturity close to the fund’s stated maturity. The bonds are held till maturity and the coupons paid by the bonds are re-invested in the fund. So, investors benefit from these funds as they provide visibility and stability of returns. Also, as they are mandated to investment in Govt. securities, PSUs or State Govt., the investments are safe.

Here’s the list of curated readings for you this week:

Personal Finance

  • What Really Matters? –  Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management says that What really matters is the performance of your holdings over the next five or ten years (or more) and how the value at the end of the period compares to the amount you invested and to your needs. Read the memo here.
  • India has emerged as the second most coveted investment market – India has emerged as the second most coveted investment market after the United States for sovereign wealth funds and public pensions funds in 2022, according to a study by asset manager Invesco published on Monday. Read here.
  • Crypto exchange saga just keeps getting better- Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX, his parents and senior executives of the failed cryptocurrency exchange bought at least 19 properties worth nearly $121 million in the Bahamas over the past two years, official property records show Read here.

Investing

  • India Q2 Earnings review – Amid a volatile global macro backdrop, India Inc. provided a decent Corporate earnings for 2QFY23, driven by continued strong performance of Financials and lesser-than-estimated losses in OMC’s.  Watch here.
  • The Myth of the Tech God Is Crumbling – It’s the myth of extreme competence. Key to the power of this myth was that it wasn’t only techies who believed. Investors, both professionals and everyday Joes and Janes, bid up tech stocks to stratospheric valuations. In the past couple of weeks, however, it’s become clearer than ever that the myth of extreme competence is just that—a myth.  Read here.

Economy

  • Increase in Bank credit to Industry may give boost to the economy – Indian lenders are expanding lending to local corporations at the fastest pace in more than eight years, a sign of a new private investment cycle starting in the world’s fifth-largest economy even as growth in large developed economies and China slows. Read here.
  • China keeps shooting itself in the foot with Covid shut downs- The wave of infections is testing recent adjustments China has made to its zero-COVID policy, aimed at making authorities more targeted in clampdown measures and steering them away from blanket lockdowns and testing that have strangled the economy and frustrated residents nearly three years into the pandemic. Read here.
  • The rise of Indian women and its implications. As India reaps the benefits of a decade long infra build and economic reform journey, Indian women – more than Indian men – are emerging as gamechangers. The rapid growth of a Service-oriented economy, the spread of affordable education, and the mushrooming of smartphones and social media have helped Indian women rise more rapidly over the past decade than Indian men. Read here

CAGR Speak

  • Why do holding companies in India trade at a large discount? India has a large number of holding companies which are listed and trade at a discount to the value of their equity holdings in other companies. The discounts in some of the holding companies is as high as 60-70%. Read the linkedin post here.
  • Why do it yourself may not be the best strategy when it comes to investing?  Read here.

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Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios here.

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That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you enjoyed reading this issue, please consider following us here, here and here for the encouragement to keep writing this weekly newsletter.

If you have any feedback that you’d like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated on this newsletter.

CAGR Insights – 18 Nov 2022

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of web.

Here’s the list of curated readings for you this week:

Personal Finance

  • The secrets of stealth wealth. Stealth Wealth is essentially all about having more control over your life and your finances and being able to do what you want when you want. Contrary to popular belief, stealth wealth is not just for millionaires. Anyone can live a stealth wealth lifestyle if they know how.Read here
  • Why PPFAS Mutual Fund continues to hold Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta stocks? – The chief investment officer at the fund house said investing in international stocks is to lower the country-specific volatility and to find opportunities to invest in companies that are otherwise not available in India; and not necessarily to maximize returns. See here.
  • This would be a good step by SEBI for investor protection- The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) on Thursday said it is working on a set of guidelines for financial influencers, or finfluencers, giving unsolicited financial advice on social media platforms.Read here.

Investing

  • Best investment strategy methods in the world – Quality investing is one of the best investment methods in the world. Since 2010, this investment strategy returned more than 18% (!) per year to shareholders. Read twitter thread here.
  • Boring is beautiful in investing – Successful investing should be boring. It should be long-term in nature. It requires patience and discipline and the ability to ignore the madness of the crowds. But you can’t brag about boring to your friends and co-workers.Read here.

Economy

  • India’s retail inflation eases to 3-month low – India’s retail inflation eased sharply to 6.77 per cent on an annual basis in the month of October from 7.41 per cent in September, 2022. But core inflation remains sticky. Read here.
  • Bank credit to grow ~15% in this and next fiscals- Bank credit is seen growing ~15% per annum in fiscals 2023 and 2024, riding on broad-based economic recovery and stronger, cleaner balance sheets that allow lenders to expand credit.Read here.

CAGR Speak

  • Global wealth equity study finds that women attain just 74% of men’s wealth on retirement. The range across countries analyzed varied from 60% to 90%. Read here.
  • An exciting development in the Indian Government bond market. Read here.

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Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios here.

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That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you enjoyed reading this issue, please consider following us here, here and here for the encouragement to keep writing this weekly newsletter.

If you have any feedback that you’d like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated on this newsletter.

CAGR Insights – 11 Nov 2022

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of web.

Here’s the list of curated readings for you this week:

Personal Finance

  • Passive funds have been gaining popularity among investors. AMFI monthly data shows that passive funds have overtaken active funds in terms of net inflows. The data shows that passive funds have received monthly inflows of Rs.10,260 crore during October 2022 which was higher than that of active funds. Read here
  • More wealth means more alternative investment? –  This divergence of capital away from traditional asset classes like stocks and bonds and towards alternatives (i.e. private equity, hedge funds, etc.) seems to be positively correlated with the amount of wealth that someone has. Read here
  • Centre mulling changes to capital gains tax regime – Parity within asset classes will be a key consideration in the review that may even consider changes in the tax rate. See here.
  • Rewriting is the key to improved thinking- Obviously, revising is hard work. It demands that you put yourself through the wringer, intellectually and emotionally, to squeeze out the best you can offer.Read here.

Investing

  • State Guaranteed bonds are not all safe – What are the chances of a State Government guaranteed bond defaulting? There have been defaults of Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Punjab and Orissa state PSU bonds defaulting early in this millennium (especially during 2000-2002). The bonds have been restructured and subsequently honored, but the chances of defaults occurring again should not be ignored, even if possibility of default is low. Read here.
  • The most important skill in finance has nothing to do with math.- It’s no coincidence that most of the all-time great investors — Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett, Howard Marks, Peter Lynch, etc. — had the innate ability to explain their investment process in a way that everyone could understand it. Read here.
  • Sequoia marks down crypto exchange FTX investment to zero- We are reaching out to share an update on our investment in FTX. In recent days, a liquidity crunch has created solvency risk for FTX. The full nature and extent of this risk is not known at this time. Based on our current understanding, we are marking our investment down to $0  Read here.

Economy

  • U.S. inflation turning the corner – U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in October, pushing the annual increase below 8% for the first time in eight months, the strongest signs yet that inflation was slowing, which would allow the Federal Reserve to scale back its hefty interest rate hikes. Read here.
  • How Bangladesh went from an economic miracle to needing IMF help – So the country’s economic health largely rests on those three things — exports, remittances and fuel prices — all of which have taken a hit in recent months. Read here.
  • India may adopt 2013 formula to deal with Europe on clearing corporations – India’s financial market regulators — the RBI and SEBI in Mumbai and IFSC, which regulates GIFT City trades — don’t want the European Securities and Market Authority (ESMA) to have the power to monitor, supervise or audit Indian clearing corporations (CCs. Read here.

CAGR Speak

  • So, why does everyone emphasize on starting to invest early? Read here.
  • Interesting read – CFA society India insights – Sep 2022 covers the society’s comments on recent SEBI consultation paper. Our co-founder has worked on the papers as part of CFA’s Research and Advocacy committee.  Read here.

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Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios here.

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That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you enjoyed reading this issue, please consider following us here, here and here for the encouragement to keep writing this weekly newsletter.

If you have any feedback that you’d like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated on this newsletter.

CAGR Insights – 03 Nov 2022

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of web.

Monthly Market update – Oct 2022

The Indian equity indices staged a strong rebound in October with the blue – chip S&P BSE SENSEX rising 5.9% and NIFTY 50 rising 5.4% in October.

Although the bullish sentiment was widespread, smaller companies lagged their larger peers; the S&P BSE SmallCap clocked up a relatively demure 1.3% gain. The rise has been on the back of strong corporate earnings reports and hopes of a less-hawkish stance from major central banks.

Among sectors, Energy and Banking sectors were the best performing sectors, while the FMCG and consumer durables were the two laggards

Our Co-founders discuss about the share bazaar for the month of Oct, what went well and what should investors NOT be doing! Watch the video here.

Here’s the list of curated readings for you this week:

Personal Finance

  • The Present Defines the Past- Whatever you’re thinking right now, you have to realize that you’re being biased by current events. The present is redefining your past.Read here.
  • SEBI has reduced the Face Value and trading lot for debt – SEBI has reduced the Face Value and trading lot for debt securities issued on private placement basis to 1 lakh from 10 lakhs. This is a welcome step to make debt securities accessible to retail investors. Read here
  • Demystifying: Top-Up Plan Vs A Super Top-Up Health Insurance Plan, Which Is Better?– Whether you should buy a top-up or a super top-up plan should depend on your medical requirement. Ideally, one should weigh all pros and cons before investing in any such plan. Read here
  • Underpenetrated equity markets in India- Its still 7% of the population. See such data and some more on this link by Abakkus investment.  See here.

Investing

  • Minimizing Drawdown Lay the Foundation to Quick Recovery– Many investors mistakenly base the success of their portfolios on returns alone. However, it is equally important to consider the risk involved in achieving those returns. Read here.
  • Indians just love gold – India’s gold demand jumped 14% on year to 191.7 tn in the September quarter, as retail investors responded to the drop in prices and weakness in equity markets, the World Gold Council said in its Gold Demand Trends report. Read here.
  • The Dhanlaxmi bank fiasco- The bank’s share price has crashed by 93% since 2010. It’s almost a penny stock now (below ₹10). And few days back, the shareholders had enough.  Read here.

Economy

  • Powell Sees Higher Peak for Rates, Path to Slow Tempo of Hikes- The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point again on Wednesday and said its battle against inflation will require borrowing costs to rise further, yet signaled it may be nearing an inflection point in what has become the swiftest tightening of U.S. monetary policy in 40 years. Read here.
  • India has the potential to drive a fifth of the global growth over the next decade, with market capitalization likely to grow by over 11% annually to $10 trillion, according to global investment bank Morgan Stanley.Read here.
  • Foreigners Turn Sellers of India Bonds on Index Disappointment – Global funds sold 24.4 billion rupees ($295 million) of index-eligible Indian sovereign bonds in October after JPMorgan Chase & Co. refrained from including the debt in its gauge. Read here.

CAGR Speak

  • Happy to share that we currently have clients from 230 locations in India.  Read here.
  • “Some of our corporate records are not traceable.” Said a company in DHRP. Read here.
  • Shruti shares her learning from moderating CFA Society India workshop in Mumbai on Family Offices. Read here.

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Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios here.

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That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you enjoyed reading this issue, please consider following us here, here and here for the encouragement to keep writing this weekly newsletter.

If you have any feedback that you’d like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated on this newsletter.

CAGR Insights – 28 Oct 2022

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of web.

Here’s the list of curated readings for you this week:

Personal Finance

  • In search of deposits, bankers embark on door-to-door campaign – Video of Canara Bank employees selling FD scheme on road is from Goregaon East, Mumbai, confirm branch employees. Read here.
  • Invest in companies that Handle hard well – The adversity will separate the wheat from the chaff, the three-stars with upside from five-stars without it, and those who can “handle hard well” from those who cannot. Read here.
  • Ready reckoner for Passive funds – The latest edition of Cafemutual’s Passive Ready Reckoner is now out. It gives you all details that you need to know – daily AUM, TER, tracking error, tracking difference (1 year), and returns (1, 3 and 5 years). Additionally, it also captures the 1-year average trading volume and impact cost for ETFs.Read here.

Investing

  • Fundamental Analysis of Asahi India Glass– Dr. Vijay Malik brings out deep insights on Asahi India Glass, India’s leading producer of automotive and float glass. Read here.
  • A Primer on Free Cash Flow  – Free cash flow is one of the most dangerous terms in finance, and I am astonished by how it can be bent to mean whatever investors or managers want it to, and used to advance their sales pitches, says Prof, Aswath Damodaran.  Read the blog here.
  • Hedge funder David Einhorn says value investing may be gone forever- There have been serious changes to the market structure and pretty much most of the value investors have been put out of business.  Watch the interview here.
  • Understanding the hospital industry – The hospital industry is emerging rapidly due to progression in technology, increasing penetration in health insurance and growth in various lifestyle diseases across the country. This knowledge session by Parag Parikh Mutual fund team provides valuable insights. Watch here.

Economy

  • India’s Plan to Unlock Gold Gets New Focus With Trade Gap Near Record- The deposit plan and a related sovereign gold bond scheme, which allows an investor to buy a bond priced at the value of gold without an underlying physical asset, are a “far cry from success,” representing less than 2% of India’s annual gold consumption. Read here.
  • ECB raises rates by 75 bps for 3rd straight time, hints at more hikes – In recent months, soaring energy and food prices, supply bottlenecks and the post-pandemic recovery in demand have led to broadening of price pressures and an increase in inflation, the central bank said. Read here.
  • RBI MPC holds an additional meeting – The Monetary Policy Committee will hold an additional meeting, according to a press release issued by the Reserve Bank of India today. The meeting will be held under provision of Section 45ZN of the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934, which pertains to drafting the committee’s report to the government on failure to meet the inflation targetting mandate. Read here.

CAGR Speak

  • Succession planning – Who is Next? This is one of the most daunting challenge several companies in India face. Read here.
  • Are women less confident about managing their own money?  Read here.

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Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios here.

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That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you enjoyed reading this issue, please consider following us here, here and here for the encouragement to keep writing this weekly newsletter.

If you have any feedback that you’d like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated on this newsletter.

Learning from Warren Buffet Series – Part 5

Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder letter – 1983-85

Key Takeaways from the letters (in no particular order)

Learning 1

Allocation of capital is the key – Allocation of capital is the key factor to judge a business management or a fund manager. It is one of the most crucial factors which decide the fate of the business or fund. We as investors need to keep an eye on the capital allocation decisions of management. We often see management retaining large sums of the business earnings and reinvesting it in lower return of investment projects, unrelated businesses, just so that management can expand their empire or at times we see companies having a high dividend payout ratio when they actually need to deploy capital in their business. Both these circumstances are alarming. Market in general rewards management which has a history of good capital allocation decisions.

This is true for businesses and individuals alike as capital is not free, every decision we as individuals take to save, spend or invest capital matters.

Learning 2

Become a learning machine – To be successful one need to keep learning and updating oneself. To become a learning machine one has to voraciously read, think and aim to become little wiser every day. This concept been beautifully captured in an article on the Buffet formula in the widely read and followed blog “Farnam Street”. I strongly suggest that you read the full article here.

The biggest difficulty in life is not learning new things; it is to unlearn the old. Keynes articulated the problem crisply when he said: “The difficulty lies not in the new ideas but in escaping from the old ones.”

Learning 3

Invest in management who eat their own cooking – Buffet in his 1983 annual letter to shareholders lists down the major business principles which he follows and one of the most important one is that he has an ownership orientation instead of thinking like a manager. He and other directors are all major shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway. This is one of the key takeaways for us as investors – look for companies with high Promoter holdings or mutual funds where the fund managers have their own funds invested.

Learning 4

Study your failures rather than your success – Buffet emphasizes that both in life and other aspects of life studying and learning from your mistakes is of great importance. He embodies it by giving a full detailed account of his reason of shutting down the textile business and the loss in earnings caused by the delay in taking this decision.

Learning from our mistakes has one added advantage we tend to not repeat them again in future (hopefully). As Charlie Munger says “All I want to know is where I’m going to die so I’ll never go there.”

Learn more from Warren Buffet through previous parts of our series:

Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4

Learning from Warren Buffet Series – Part 4

This time, I have combined the key takeaways from 3 letters. Because, while Warren Buffet writes these letters with a gap of one year, we are trying to bring up these articles every month. So we need to avoid being repetitive. But, most of the knowledge imparted by him is so timeless and relevant, that we are forced to write about them again and again.

Berkshire Hathway Shareholder letter – 1980-82

Key learning from the letters (in no particular order)

Learning 1

Buy right and sit tight – If your purchase price is sensible, some long-term market recognition of the accumulation of retained earnings almost certainly will occur. If you are confident about your investment, you need to wait patiently. Pascal’s observation seems apt: “It has struck me that all men’s misfortunes spring from the single cause that they are unable to stay quietly in one room.” If there is ever a chart which can speak, I believe the below chart of BSE Sensex would just say “shut up and remain invested”.

Sensex journey and growth

Learning 2

Forecasting folly – Forecasts are useless especially in stock markets. Investors need to avoid falling for forecasts at any costs.   “Forecasts”, said Sam Goldwyn, “are dangerous, particularly those about the future.” Read why here.

Learning 3

Invest when there is blood on street – Investors need to be patient and invest when there is fear in the market, because it is during these market corrections that you will get handsome opportunities.

Learning 4

Avoid business in industries producing un-differentiated products – Businesses in industries with both substantial over-capacity and a “commodity” product (undifferentiated in any customer-important way by factors such as performance, appearance, service support, etc.) are prime candidates for profit troubles. Investors need to be wary of businesses in industries where there is no difference in products like sugar, textile, paper etc.

PayPal founder, Peter Thiel in his ground breaking book “Zero to One” says “All failed companies are the same: they failed to escape competition.”, and it is very difficult to escape competition if the product you are producing is undifferentiated.

Learn more from Warren Buffet through previous parts of our series:

Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3

LEARNING FROM WARREN BUFFET SERIES – PART 3

After a long cooling off period, here is our third part of the much liked series from Mr. Kshitiz Jain. This one should be read by everyone as the takeaways are extremely relevant for Indians.

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Berkshire Hathway Shareholder letter – 1979

Learning 1

Buffet explains that for investors to judge a good company the measure that should be focused on is Return on Capital Employed (ROCE). But, investors need to be careful of the factors like leverage, accounting measures etc. which can distort the ratios.

Learning 2

Buffet in his letter brings out two of the most important factors that impact the returns of individual investors i.e. Inflation and Taxation.

 “For the inflation rate, coupled with individual tax rates, will be the ultimate determinant as to whether our internal operating performance produces successful investment results – i.e., a reasonable gain in purchasing power from funds committed – for you as shareholders

Learning 3

In my view, the below lines is what made Buffet so successful as an investor. It clearly brings out Buffet from the shadow of his teacher Benjamin Graham, who is widely known as the “father of value investing”. Quality of company should be the first criteria for an investor, only if this criterion is met, investor should look at prices.

“ Both our operating and investment experience cause us to conclude that “turnarounds” seldom turn, and that the same energies and talent are much better employed in a good business purchased at a fair price than in a poor business purchased at a bargain price.”

Learning 4

Buffet in this letter touches upon another common investment instrument i.e. Bonds. He suggests that investors should avoid investing in long tenor bonds, especially in an inflation-ridden world. According to him, fixed price contracts like bonds are nonexistent in virtually all other areas of commerce. Parties to long-term contracts now either index prices in some manner, or insist on the right to review the situation every year or so. Similarly, fixed rate bonds for long tenors, does not make sense as it is difficult to predict interest rate and inflation scenario for such a long term.

My two cents

Firstly, an important lesson which Buffet talks about is that investors should avoid instruments like fixed deposits (FD) which due to lower returns than inflation end up destroying the purchasing power of the investors. Investors should focus on the real return (Nominal return – inflation) generated by an instrument of company instead of the nominal return generated.

Secondly, taxation is another important factor that impacts an investor’s return. Inflation adjusted post tax return is actually what an investor will earn. For an investor’s money to grow, the post-tax return from an instrument should be more than inflation.

Equity is the only asset class which is known to give real returns over a long period of time. So for investors looking to create wealth over a long term, equity exposure is necessary.

Also read our LEARNING FROM WARREN BUFFET SERIES – PART 2 & PART 1

Learning from Warren Buffet Series – Part 2

warren buffet investing

Here is the second in our Warren Buffet Series. (Refer Part 1). This one is quite interesting and relevant.

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Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder letter – 1978

Learning 1

Buffet warns investors against forecasting folly that prevails in the stock market. He clearly communicates to his shareholders his philosophy of investing for the long term. It helps him to align his shareholders expectation with his thinking.

“We make no attempt to predict how security markets will behave; successfully forecasting short term stock price movements are something we think neither we nor anyone else can do.  In the longer run, however, we feel that many of our major equity holdings are going to be worth considerably more money than we paid, and that investment gains will add significantly to the operating returns of the insurance group.”

Learning 2

Buffet highlights some of the characteristics of certain industries that need to be avoided by investors, by using his investment in Textile as an example. Again clearly admitting his mistakes head on.

  1. Slow capital turnover
  2. Low profit margins on sales
  3. Highly competitive landscape
  4. Capital intensive industry with low differentiation in goods

“The textile industry illustrates in textbook style how  producers of relatively undifferentiated goods in capital intensive businesses must earn inadequate returns except under conditions of tight supply or real shortage.  As long as excess productive capacity exists, prices tend to reflect direct operating costs rather than capital employed.  Such a supply-excess condition appears likely to prevail most of the time in the textile industry, and our expectations are for profits of relatively modest amounts in relation to capital.”

Learning 3

Buffet describes two facets of his highly successful investing style, which he feels is going to reap benefits for him and his shareholders over the years. Buffet and his partner Charlie Munger has been two of the best known proponents of this style of investing. i.e. Concentrated value investing. A concentrated value investor looks for a company where he can see more value than the market price and when he finds such an opportunity, he will invest a significant amount of his portfolio in that company.

My two cents

As investors in equity market or mutual funds, the 3 biggest learning from the letter are:

  1. Ignore the short term noise and focus on the long term. So markets will be volatile but as long term investors, all you need to know is that you are invested in the right funds and have some patience
  2. Avoid stocks or Mutual funds with portfolio of companies having bad quality businesses
  3. Invest only after making sure that there is margin of safety or to put it simply, invest at a price cheaper than its value and when you are convinced about the attractiveness, you need to invest a large percentage of your portfolio. For Mutual funds investors you can look for mutual fund managers playing by this style. Word of caution here, this is just one of the successful investing style and there are various other styles which have been highly successful.

Learning from Warren Buffet Series – Part 1

What is this series about?

We have all heard a lot about the ace investor Warren Buffet. But how many of us have really read through his letters? So here we are, launching a learning series where our expert Mr. Kshitiz Jain summarizes the learning from each of his letters and connects it to what it means for us. So whether you invest in stocks or mutual funds, do takeaway some key learning for investing in general!

Also, participate in sharing the knowledge. So do Comment / Share / Like.

Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder letter – 1977

Characteristics of Good Management : Buffet letters gives us a lot of insight on this matter
  1. Buffet prefers to give his shareholders bad news first, followed by good news. There are various evidences throughout the letters. This is a hallmark of good management, while reading annual reports look for these characteristics.
  2. Good Management will readily accepts its mistake and instead of finding excuses looks to either cut losses or keep their shareholders well informed about their mistake and learning from it. Buffet accepts that Textile business has not been working well and explains in detail the reason why they are continuing with the business.
  3. Good management will give clear guidance and instead of being just overly optimistic, good management will manage shareholder expectations honestly.
  4. Managerial Discipline even in the wake of industry wide malpractices.
Investing gyaan: Buffet gives us a unique insight in his style of investing
  1. While investing in stocks evaluate as if you are buying ownership of the company and not just looking to earn short term gains.
  2. Buffet defines the type of business, one should invest in:
    1. One that we can understand,
    2. With favorable long-term prospects,
    3. Operated by honest and competent people
    4. Available at a very attractive price.
  3. Long term investment horizon and ignoring short term volatility  – “Most of our large stock positions are going to be held for many years and the scorecard on our investment decisions will be provided by business results over that period and not by prices on any given day.”
  4. Invest in companies or industries where the industry scenario is favorable, this gives the company scope to make mistakes, learn and move on – “One of the lessons your management has learned – and, unfortunately, sometimes re-learned – is the importance of being in businesses where tailwinds prevail rather than headwinds.”
  5. Stock market gives you opportunities to buy outstanding businesses at discounts which will not be available, if you are looking to acquire entire companies – “Our experience has been that pro-rata portions of truly outstanding businesses sometimes sell in the securities markets at very large discounts from the prices they would command in negotiated transactions involving entire companies. Consequently, bargains in business ownership, which simply are not available directly through corporate acquisition, can be obtained indirectly through stock ownership.  When prices are appropriate, we are willing to take very large positions in selected companies, not with any intention of taking control and not foreseeing sell-out or merger, but with the expectation that excellent business results by corporations will translate over the long term into correspondingly excellent market value and dividend results for owners, minority as well as majority.”
My two cents

Buffet helps us to answer two of the most important question that an investor needs to answer. I have tried to extend these learning further for mutual fund investors.

Where to invest?

Invest in good quality well managed businesses that you understand and are available at attractive prices. This is one of the most important learning that investors should always try to invest in quality business, even if they may not be the flavor of the month. A good quality well managed business that is currently out of favor is the best thing that can happen for an investor. Similarly, good quality mutual funds managed by fund managers with long term track records may under perform for short periods in between but will give higher returns in the long term.

How to identify good management?

Management that is honest, manages shareholders expectations with clear guidance, readily accepts mistakes and disciplined. Similarly, a mutual fund manager who has a disciplined approach to investing and does not waver from his investing style and fund mandate even in tough market situations would be someone to entrust your investments with.