Learning from Warren Buffet Series – Part 1

What is this series about?

We have all heard a lot about the ace investor Warren Buffet. But how many of us have really read through his letters? So here we are, launching a learning series where our expert Mr. Kshitiz Jain summarizes the learning from each of his letters and connects it to what it means for us. So whether you invest in stocks or mutual funds, do takeaway some key learning for investing in general!

Also, participate in sharing the knowledge. So do Comment / Share / Like.

Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder letter – 1977

Characteristics of Good Management : Buffet letters gives us a lot of insight on this matter
  1. Buffet prefers to give his shareholders bad news first, followed by good news. There are various evidences throughout the letters. This is a hallmark of good management, while reading annual reports look for these characteristics.
  2. Good Management will readily accepts its mistake and instead of finding excuses looks to either cut losses or keep their shareholders well informed about their mistake and learning from it. Buffet accepts that Textile business has not been working well and explains in detail the reason why they are continuing with the business.
  3. Good management will give clear guidance and instead of being just overly optimistic, good management will manage shareholder expectations honestly.
  4. Managerial Discipline even in the wake of industry wide malpractices.
Investing gyaan: Buffet gives us a unique insight in his style of investing
  1. While investing in stocks evaluate as if you are buying ownership of the company and not just looking to earn short term gains.
  2. Buffet defines the type of business, one should invest in:
    1. One that we can understand,
    2. With favorable long-term prospects,
    3. Operated by honest and competent people
    4. Available at a very attractive price.
  3. Long term investment horizon and ignoring short term volatility  – “Most of our large stock positions are going to be held for many years and the scorecard on our investment decisions will be provided by business results over that period and not by prices on any given day.”
  4. Invest in companies or industries where the industry scenario is favorable, this gives the company scope to make mistakes, learn and move on – “One of the lessons your management has learned – and, unfortunately, sometimes re-learned – is the importance of being in businesses where tailwinds prevail rather than headwinds.”
  5. Stock market gives you opportunities to buy outstanding businesses at discounts which will not be available, if you are looking to acquire entire companies – “Our experience has been that pro-rata portions of truly outstanding businesses sometimes sell in the securities markets at very large discounts from the prices they would command in negotiated transactions involving entire companies. Consequently, bargains in business ownership, which simply are not available directly through corporate acquisition, can be obtained indirectly through stock ownership.  When prices are appropriate, we are willing to take very large positions in selected companies, not with any intention of taking control and not foreseeing sell-out or merger, but with the expectation that excellent business results by corporations will translate over the long term into correspondingly excellent market value and dividend results for owners, minority as well as majority.”
My two cents

Buffet helps us to answer two of the most important question that an investor needs to answer. I have tried to extend these learning further for mutual fund investors.

Where to invest?

Invest in good quality well managed businesses that you understand and are available at attractive prices. This is one of the most important learning that investors should always try to invest in quality business, even if they may not be the flavor of the month. A good quality well managed business that is currently out of favor is the best thing that can happen for an investor. Similarly, good quality mutual funds managed by fund managers with long term track records may under perform for short periods in between but will give higher returns in the long term.

How to identify good management?

Management that is honest, manages shareholders expectations with clear guidance, readily accepts mistakes and disciplined. Similarly, a mutual fund manager who has a disciplined approach to investing and does not waver from his investing style and fund mandate even in tough market situations would be someone to entrust your investments with.

Do you get attracted by market forecasts?

“Bullish on market, see Sensex at 32000 by December 2016″ – Citi Jan 13, 2016

“Citi’s December 2017 Sensex target at 31500, implies 5% upside”- May 05, 2017

We often come across news headlines such as above. The “expert” forecaster’s ever changing goal posts.

Forecasts are everywhere. The financial markets are inundated with forecasts by the so called “experts” either on TV or in print media. This is not an article against any single forecaster. I am just trying to show how wrong the so called experts can go while predicting the financial market’s movement.

We as human beings by nature look for certainty, in an uncertain future. This is the reason, unfortunately as investors we tend to give far greater weight to these “predictions” in print or on TV. As Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital wrote in his memo to clients on the same topic “The opinions of experts concerning the future are accorded great weight . . . but they’re still just opinions.

Many of my friends and relatives come up to me and ask questions like “Is the Sensex going to touch 35000 by Dec 2017?”, Or “Is RIL stock going to cross 2000 this month?” My answer to all such questions is unequivocally “I don’t know”.

I would always advise everyone to not invest on basis of forecasts. Always do your own due diligence before making an investment decision. As per a legend, one of the top bankers in the world, JP Morgan when asked about what stock market will do, replied, “It will fluctuate”. If one of the top bankers in the world doesn’t know, we better avoid falling into that trap.

Having said that, there is a difference in forecasting and making a probability based judgment. Judgment based on proper due diligence is far better than opinion of experts. We as investors should avoid the noise surrounding us. We should try to focus on our own analysis of important and relevant information to do our investments.

I would close this article with an excerpt from the Howard Marks’ Memo titled “Expert Opinion” which is a huge inspiration for this article, and, also because I could not have put it any better.

One of the most powerful things we can do as a human being in our hyper connected, 24/7 media world is say: “I don’t know.” Or more provocatively, “I don’t care.”

Not about everything, of course –just most things. Because most things don’t matter, and most news stories aren’t worth tracking

Are you taking the right investing decisions?

Much like the overconfident hare in the fable of “The Tortoise and the Hare”, people can well fall prey to the exaggerated notions of their own infallibility. Are you then, the tortoise or the hare, when it comes to handling your money or investing? What if we were to tell you that overconfidence bias can impact your investment decisions?

There is a very fine line of distinction between confidence and overconfidence. Overconfidence is the difference between ‘what you know’ and ‘what you think you know’.

A colleague of mine had no idea about investing and more specifically, about buying and selling stocks. It was during the regular lunch break discussions about the rising equity market, that he got fascinated with the idea of investing. What next? He started following the prices of stocks and in a trending market, he felt that he is successfully being able to predict the market movement.

The next logical step for him was to open a brokerage account with an equity broker. Kicked by his exuberance about the newly acquired skill, he started buying and selling stocks in small quantities. And his excitement knew no bounds when he started making some money. With the initial success he started to believe that he had the ability to predict the market. And that he had acquired a skill which could help him make money on a continuous and consistent basis. With the increased confidence he started taking bigger bets. But as equity markets do not behave rationally in the short run, there was an unforeseen event in the economy and his stocks started to fall. Seeing his portfolio in red, he had to exit all his positions and he lost faith in equity markets.

How do we then prevent ourselves from being overconfident about our financial decisions?

A financial decision demands a thorough review of attendant factors.

  • Are you getting sold on something that is too good to be true?
  • Are you being over enthusiastic? Optimism is good; but an excess of enthusiasm can be fraught with risk, because it involves haste and haste preempts caution.
  • Do you have enough logical reasons for the financial decision you are about to take? Remember, each deal presents distinct challenges. Tackle them wisely and.
  • Have you reflected enough on your past experiences and mistakes?
  • Have you consulted an expert advisor for a second opinion on your decision?

Determining answers to these questions will serve to offset the ‘overconfidence bias’ into your investment patterns.

How do we help?

Overconfidence is largely a result of misjudging one’s own judgement. At CAGRfunds, we give you the “second opinion” that you might just be looking for. We not only conduct a FREE audit of your current portfolio, but also give you the right financial advice for all your future goals. We therefore ensure that you do not mistakenly take very concentrated exposures to a particular asset class.

Write to us at contact@cagrfunds.com for a FREE audit of your existing portfolio.

Everything that you wanted to know about an SIP

SIP or Systematic Investment Plan – A term which has off late been doing the rounds in the world of investing. Every financial advisor you meet will recommend a few SIPs to you. Do you often feel bogged down by the what(s), why(s) and how(s) of these SIPs? Read on to find out everything you need to know about SIPs before you move on to start one.

  1. Mode of investment and not a fund: SIPs are a mode of investment and not the fund or the instrument where you invest. Therefore SIPs don’t represent any asset class. They are a way of investing in any of the asset classes. In other words, they are more of an approach to investing.
  2. Defined periodic instalments: As the term indicates, SIPs are defined instalments which get invested on a pre decided date every month or quarter. For example, you can decide that Rs. 10,000 should get invested on the 10th of every month.
  3. ECS / Deducted directly from bank: Every SIP application is accompanied by a NACH mandate also known as an ECS mandate. By signing the mandate you authorize your bank to debit the pre decided amount on the specified date. This means that you do not need to put a separate transaction every month to make your investment. For example, when you sign the mandate, your bank automatically debits Rs. 10,000 on the 10th of every month and this gets invested without any action on your part. At CAGRfunds, we have introduced the concept of 1 mandate, which means you do not need to sign separate mandates for separate SIPs. One mandate for any number of SIPs across any number of mutual funds.
  1. Pre decided funds: When you make an application for registering a SIP, you also decide the funds where the investment shall happen every month or quarter. O every month, Rs. 10,000 gets automatically deducted from your bank account and gets invested in the fund you had selected.
  2. Start date and end date: You can choose the start date and end date of your SIP. Most funds have a criteria for minimum number of instalments (wither 6 or 12). However, having a perpetual SIP is beneficial for those who want to create wealth in the long run and want to follow a disciplined approach for the same.
  3. Any number of SIPs: You can have any number of SIPs. Each SIP is for a particular fund that you decide and hence you can have as many SIPs as the number of funds you decide to invest in.
  4. ELSS SIP: Taxation is a necessary evil and none of us should leave an opportunity to save our taxes. Section 80c of the IT Act gives us a benefit of Rs. 1,50,000 which we can deduct from our taxable income. Some of us who are more aware and believe in the potential of wealth creation through equity investment, choose to invest in ELSS funds (Tax saving mutual funds). However, very few of us choose the SIP route. ELSS investments if made through SIPs, helps reduce the risk arising out of market volatility to some extent. For example, you need to invest Rs. 60,000 to cover your 80C investments and you choose to invest in ELSS funds. You should invest Rs. 5,000 every month over a period of 12 months rather than invest Rs. 60,000 as a lump sum investment at one go.

How do we help?

At CAGRfunds, we help you with all your financial queries. Whether it is about a SIP or otherwise, we promise to give an answer to each one of them. For any query, post a comment to this article. Or whatsapp us on +91 9769356440