CAGR Insights – 29 Dec 2023

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of web.

Index29-Dec-2322-Dec-23Change
Nifty 5021,73121,3311.88%
Nifty 50019,42919,0382.05%
Nifty Midcap 50 13,14512,8272.48%
Nifty Smallcap 10015,14414,8272.14%

Chart Ki Baat

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Gyaan Ki Baat

Predictions are exciting to know but futile to make any decisions. See this for yourself – 

Nifty predictions for 2023:

– ICICI Direct: 21,400

– CLSA: 20,185

– BofA Securities: 20,000 (bull target)

– Emkay Global Financial Services: 19,500

– Morgan Stanley: 20,600

– Jefferies: 17000-19500

– Nomura: 19,030

– BNP Paribas: 19,650

– Axis Securities: 20,400

– Kotak Securities: 18,717

Here’s the list of curated readings for you this week:

Personal Finance

  • Level Up Your Life – The article reflects on the symbolic nature of the New Year, drawing inspiration from Stoic philosophy, and proposes habits for self-improvement in 2024. Read here.
  • Proposed changes in traditional life insurance – IRDA proposes changes to traditional life insurance surrender costs, suggesting a threshold premium to mitigate high surrender charges, eliciting industry pushback. Read here.
  • A comprehensive year-end financial planning checklist – A checklist that helps assess and align assets and liabilities, optimize asset allocation, review retirement goals, execute tax planning, and refine estate planning for a disciplined financial strategy. Read here.
  • Beyond wealth – The story reflects on the limitations of money, illustrating how it can influence aspects like health and freedom but cannot replace the intrinsic value of purpose and love in defining one’s self-worth. Read here.

Investing

  • Barbell strategy and Drawdowns – Drawdowns, or portfolio losses from peak to trough, are intrinsic to investing, with a barbell approach balancing safe assets and riskier factor investments reduces the drawdown impact. Read here.
  • Rethinking Market Classification – SEBI is urged to widen the definitions for large and mid-cap stocks due to market dynamics and increased mutual fund inflows to accommodate a larger number of stocks. Read here.
  • Indian Equities:  FPI holdings – FPI holdings in Indian equities hit a 10-year low as of November 2023, raising expectations of a potential rally in large caps. Read here.

Economy

  • The Fed’s Potential Rate Cuts – Insights on Global Economy and Investment Opportunities for 2024, Emphasizing Bull Markets in Emerging Markets, Commodities, and Japan. Read here.
  • Diversification vs Diworsification Dilemma – The increasing reliance on non-core businesses for revenue in various industries, carries both success stories and cautionary tales, emphasizing the need for careful evaluation of diversification strategies. Read here.
  • The Evolution and Challenges of Christmas Trees – The US Christmas tree industry faces challenges with shrinking supplies and rising popularity of artificial trees which pose environmental concerns and potential long-term impacts on the real tree market. Read here.
  • Global Bond Index: India’s Inclusion – India’s inclusion in the JP Morgan GBI-EM index may bring positive inflows, but the impact on benchmark yields in 2024 is expected to be limited. Read here.

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Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios here.

CAGR Insights – 15 Dec 2023

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of web.

Index15-Dec-2308-Dec-23Change
Nifty 5021,45720,9692.32%
Nifty 50019,14518,7042.36%
Nifty Midcap 50 13,02912,6243.21%
Nifty Smallcap 10014,88614,4043.35%
Chart Ki Baat
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Gyaan Ki Baat

7 rules for a happy life from Berkshire’s Charlie Munger:
1. Manage expectations: If you have unrealistic expectations, you’re going to be unsatisfied which will make your life miserable.
2. Avoid envy: Envy makes people’s life Miserable. We should be grateful for the things we have.
3. Eliminate resentment: Resentment leads to misery. We should think of good things that have happened in our life.
4. Stay cheerful despite adversity: Life is not like a bed of roses. But with a cheerful heart, we can bloom amidst any situation.
5. Be reliable and surround yourself with reliable people: Reliability is about doing what you say you will do. It’s about being somewhat predictable and reasonable.
6. Follow your natural drift towards something that excites you: If you do something that excites you, Success often becomes an eager companion in your journey.
7. Read and study constantly: Learn from past mistakes and become more educated every day by reading more.
Source: Valueresearch

Here’s the list of curated readings for you this week:

Personal Finance

·  The Art of Averaging Down – This article discusses business characteristics which help decide whether or not you should average down on certain stocks. Read here.
 
·   Important Factors for analysing mutual funds – Morningstar describes different factors (like fund performance, fund strategy) and how they should be assessed while selecting a mutual fund. Read here.
 
·   SEBI Proposes Lower Face Value to Boost Retail Participation in Corporate Bonds – The move aims to make corporate bonds more accessible, potentially boosting India’s corporate bond market and enabling companies to raise capital for infrastructure expansion. Read here.
 
·   Fintech Solutions for India’s Elderly – The blog explores the emerging opportunities and challenges in India’s fintech landscape concerning the elderly population, discussing demographic shifts, financial characteristics, and proposing tailored solutions for their unique needs. Read here.
 
·   The rise of AI poses a threat – Nikhil Kamath discusses the challenge posed by the increasing sophistication of AI and deepfake technology for the financial services industry, particularly in verifying the authenticity of individuals during digital onboarding. Read here.

Investing

·   Naval Ravikant on Navigating Tech’s Regulatory Landscape – Insights and Advice from CEO and Founder of AngelList, emphasizing the importance of pursuing intellectually passionate and knowledge-driven innovations over trend-chasing. Watch here.
 
·    Trend of FII inflows into Emerging markets – The table depicts that India has received the highest number of FII equity flows compared to other emerging markets over the last year. Read here.
 
·    Analysis of IRFC: the systemically important NBFC – The article examines the robust and unique business model of IRFC. It explores the company’s riskless lending to the government, its over-capitalization, potential implications of breaching self-imposed leverage limits post-IPO, and the extremely low valuation of its stock. Read here.
 
·    Indian Hospital Industry Booms Post-Covid – The Indian hospital sector exhibits robust growth with a projected 12% CAGR over the next three years, driven by increased health insurance penetration, post-Covid recovery, and strategic industry shifts. Read here.
 
Economy

·    India’s Economic Rise Surpasses China– With projections indicating India’s GDP could become the world’s third-largest by 2030, driven by factors like manufacturing gains, infrastructure upgrades, and optimistic growth forecasts, while China faces challenges of a slowing economy and declining global influence. Read here.
 
·    Global Economic Outlook for 2024: Soft Landing Amid Uncertainties? – Despite uncertainties stemming from the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes and challenges in China, the global economy is predicted to experience a soft landing in 2024. Read here.
 
·   Fed rate-cut favors emerging markets– Data from HSBC Asset Management suggests that emerging markets may outperform in 2024 as the Fed is expected to initiate a rate-cutting cycle in the second half, favouring assets like Indian bonds. Read here.
 
·   The Significant Power Dilemma in India – The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) data reveals India’s ongoing dependence on fossil fuels for power generation despite significant growth in renewable capacity, posing challenges for the country’s transition to clean energy. Read here.
 
·   Mapping Global Interest in Generative AI Tools – The article explores global interest in generative AI tools, revealing the Philippines as the country with the highest search volume, and highlights preferences in text, image, audio, and video generation, emphasizing the evolving landscape of generative AI worldwide. Read here.
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Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios here.

CAGR Insights – 08 Dec 2023

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of web.

Index08-Dec-2301-Dec-23Change
Nifty 5020,96920,2683.46%
Nifty 50018,70418,1153.25%
Nifty Midcap 50 12,62412,3352.35%
Nifty Smallcap 10014,40414,2391.16%

Chart Ki Baat
The Tale of US and Indian markets


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Courtesy: DSP AMC

Gyaan Ki Baat

The Crown Jewel Defense is a takeover defense strategy where a target company seeks to prevent a hostile takeover by divesting itself of its most valuable assets, known as the “crown jewels.” The target company makes itself less attractive to the acquiring company.

This defensive manoeuvre is designed to protect shareholder value and retain control over critical elements that contribute significantly to the company’s financial strength and competitive advantage. The success of the Crown Jewel Defense depends upon the significance of the divested assets.

Here’s the list of curated readings for you this week:

Personal Finance

  • Interview with Prashant Jain – This interview discusses Prashant Jaini’s views on balancing conviction and rigidity, his evolution as a money manager and a small event that changed his life. .Read here.

  • Interview with Mohnish Pabrai – This interview revolves around Monish Pabrai’s views on success, how he dealt with the Global Financial crisis and what role does money play in his idea of a successful human being. Read here.

  • CRISIL’s monthly indicator of food plate cost – The average cost of preparing a thali at home is calculated based on input prices prevailing in north, south, east and west India.Read here.

  • Case for a higher debt allocation over the next 12-18 months – Although bonds are typically thought of as an asset class that offers stability over a longer time horizon, debt has actually outperformed other asset classes throughout the era of extreme/long interest rate rises and tight financial conditions. Read here.

Investing

  • The tale of two markets – In US, the stock market has become increasingly concentrated in the hands of the top 7 firms accounting for a substantial portion of the overall market capitalization. In India, the situation is opposite. The broader small and midcap stocks have outperformed the Large caps by a huge margin. Read here.

  • Indian banks have emerged as a global beacon of stability and growth – A recent report from Moody’s has also highlighted the strength of the Indian Banks amid a negative outlook for the global banking sector in 2024. Read here.

  • US examined Hindenburg allegations before giving loan to Adani – The US government extended Indian billionaire Gautam Adani’s company as much as $553 million for a container facility in Sri Lanka after concluding that short-seller Hindenburg Research’s accusations of corporate fraud against him were unfounded .Read here.

  • Indian Central Bank keeps rate unchanged – The repo rate was kept unchanged at 6.5%, as widely expected. Read here.

  • India Inc.’s corporate landscape in Q2-FY24 – India Inc. demonstrated increased profitability even as sales growth slowed. The main driving factor for this increase in margin was the decline in commodity prices. Read here.

Economy

  • Bollywood’s Resurrection -The tremendous success of Paathan and Jaawan has revived considerable optimism for Bollywood films that has had a string of dismal years.. Read here.

  • Story of Namma Yatri – For a single day, Uber and Ola were prohibited from operating in Bangalore while the courts worked to control their pricing strategies – this was the official launch of the Namma Yatri app. This article goes into depth of the journey for creating such an app. Read here.

  • Trends in general government subsidies – Over the past ten years, there have been significant shifts in the pattern, with the phase-out of petroleum subsidies and the increased prominence of food and fertilizer subsidies. Read here.

  • US public debt concerns – Downgrades of US credit ratings underscore another consequence of the sharp increase in interest rates: apprehension over the government’s capacity to sustain sustainable public finances over the long haul.Read here.

  • Nigeria is taking a gamble on solar power – This video delves into the bet Nigeria is taking on solar power since the sudden end of its fuel subsidies. If it works in their favour, it will become the first example of a distributed off grid solar at a great scale level. Watch here.

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Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios here.

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That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you have any feedback that you would like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information outlined in this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated in this newsletter.

CAGR Insights – 17 Nov 2023

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of web.

Index17-Nov-2310-Nov-23Change
Nifty 5019,73219,4251.58%
Nifty 50017,60117,2571.99%
Nifty Midcap 50 11,90511,6142.51%
Nifty Smallcap 10013,88213,3653.87%

Chart Ki Baat
Source:
Visual Capitalist See here.

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Gyaan Ki Baat

A credit rating refers to an unbiased evaluation of the creditworthiness of a company or government entity, either in a broad sense or specifically in relation to a particular debt or financial responsibility. The credit rating essentially involves predicting a company’s capacity to repay its debt and implicitly forecasting the probability of the debtor defaulting.

A strong credit rating signifies that, according to the evaluation of the rating agency, a bond issuer will most likely meet its financial obligations to investors with ease. Conversely, a low credit rating suggests that the issuer may face challenges in fulfilling its payments or potentially default on them.

If a company possesses higher credit ratings, the interest payments on the bonds issued by that company will be lower. Conversely, if a company has lower credit ratings, the interest payments on its bonds will be higher. Credit ratings are provided by Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) like Fitch, Moody’s, S&P, CRISIL, and others. Credit ratings are represented as letter grades, with AAA being the highest and D being the lowest.  

Here’s the list of curated readings for you this week:

Personal Finance

  • Why Adventure is always a good investment – In the grand tapestry of life, it is the threads of memories that add color and texture, creating a mosaic of joy and satisfaction. Read here.

  • TickTock’s latest obsession ‘Slient Walking’ – Often overlooked in our bustling world, emerges as a powerful tool for cultivating mindfulness and promoting overall well-being. Read here.

  • India’s richest 100 – Mukesh Ambani regains the top spot on the list in 2023, while a few people were left off the list this year. Read here.

Investing

  • 4 things you must come to terms with as an equity investor – Investing comes with its own set of emotional pressures, including time constraints, expenses, and the ability to balance short-term bills with long-term investment focus. Read here.

  • Luck, humility, and arrogant money – Damodaran’s insights on the importance of being aware of biases, seeking opinions from those who think differently, and adaptability in the ever-evolving world of investing. Read here.

  • The Behavioral Case for Defensive Equities – The article discusses how human behavior, influenced by cognitive biases like loss aversion and overconfidence, can lead to irrational investment decisions. Read here.

Economy

  • Ahmedabad hotels cross Rs 1 lakh a night – With Cricket World Cup 2023 final upcoming this Sunday, travel and accommodation prices in Ahmedabad have soared dramatically. Read here.

  • When will India’s firecracker industry celebrate Diwali? – The Supreme Court’s 2021 ban on harmful chemicals in fireworks, reiterated recently, has impacted India’s fireworks industry economically. Read here.

  • RBI hikes risk weights on unsecured bank, NBFC loans by 25% – This move by RBI in response to concerns about the growing systemic risk associated with unsecured retail loans is aimed at stabilizing and calibrating the growth of such loans, requiring lenders to provide higher capital for such loans. Read here.

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Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios here.

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That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you have any feedback that you would like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information outlined in this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated in this newsletter.